Thursday, March 17, 2011

Are the NCAA Basketball Tournament seedings fair?

Whatever the criticism of the 2011 Men's NCAA Tournament Selection Committee selections, the seedings are far worse. Any team with even a remote chance of ultimately winning the overall championship, or even a regional, is in the field, but their chances are dramatically affected by their bracket and seeding. And this year at least, these placements are virtually inexplicable. For example, Florida and Kentucky entered the SEC championship with equivalent credentials.
Florida   Kentucky
          Rank 11 15
Record 26-524-7
Strength of schedule 57

Florida did have a better SEC record, 13-3, compared to 10-6 for Kentucky. But that may well have been a series of fortunate bounces. In one possession games conference games, Florida was 5-0, whereas Kentucky went an unlucky 1-5, suggesting also that Kentucky may well have been better than it's record and Florida not as good. In the conference game at a neutral site, Kentucky seemed to clear any doubt with a convincing 70-54 win. Accordingly, AP reversed their rankings -- voting Kentucky #11 and Florida #15. But the NCAA selection committee rewarded Kentucky for their decisive victory a #4 seed, and not any old #4 but #4 in the same bracket as Ohio State, the clear overall #1. Florida for it's poor performance was given a #2 seed, and not just any old #2 seed, but in a South-East sub-bracket that presents BY FAR the easiest path to the sweet sixteen, elite eight and final, and with the first two rounds in Florida to boot.

Seedings which the committee really ought to (but, or course, cannot) justify include:

Committee Loves (or Owes) Them:

SeedRegionAP rankPomeroy rankShould be seededNotes
2seFlorida1519#5also gets first two games in Florida
7seUCLA4351#12
So not only are Florida and UCLA rewarded with unjustifiable seeds, but they get to play each other for a freebe sweet 16 slot, and then go against the crippled sub-bracket (BYU, St. Johns) for a gimmee elite 8 berth, and then the easiest shot -- through Pittsburgh, by far the weakest #1 seed, for an unearned final four. They also must love Gonzaga, not because of it received an #11 seed, but because it's an #11 seed in the cripple sub-bracket of the Southeast Region.

Committee Dislikes (or Hates) Them:

SeedRegionAP rankPomeroy rankShould be seededNotes
4westTexas84#2
4eastKentucky116#2has to face overall #1 for sweet 16
12seUtah State 1917#5 (maybe #4)what else could they have done this season?
7eastWashington 2315#5 (maybe #4)
12swRichmond 3042#9 or better
13seBelmont3518#9 or better
12½seClemson  3921#9 or betterHas to first win play-in game Tuesday midnite in Ohio to compete in Florida for 12 noon Thursday game
Who knows what crimes Texas, Kentucky, Washington or Clemson might have committed, but those of Richmond, Utah State and Belmont are clear -- they're not in the major conferences.

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